Quarterly Reality Check · Q3 2026

What changed this quarter
in Quantum Computing?

Harder experiments. More machines delivered. A live hybrid service. Has any of it changed when quantum computing becomes broadly useful?

Evidence through 30 September 2026   ·   Joerg Germann, Editor

About this report. This is editorial analysis, not investment, procurement, or engineering advice. Holdings disclosure: The editor personally holds shares in IONQ, IQMX, NVDA, PSQL, QBTS, QUBT, RGTI, and XNDU.TO. Backloop Technology holds none. These holdings did not determine selection or the readiness judgment.

2030–2033Broad commercial-readiness estimate · unchanged

01Context

This is the first Quantum Litmus quarterly report. The daily Reality Check asks one question: did today's quantum news really change the outlook?

Most quantum announcements describe progress in one part of a much larger system. A better qubit matters. A new machine matters. A live customer trial matters. But none of these, by itself, proves that quantum computing is ready for broad commercial use.

This report steps back from the daily news. It looks at what accumulated during the quarter, what did not hold up, and whether the larger picture changed.

02Summary

The short answer

Q3 produced real progress. It did not produce the result that would change my commercial-readiness estimate.

Researchers ran harder experiments. More quantum hardware reached research users. Work on error correction, manufacturing and applications continued. One hybrid quantum-classical service is being used in a live telecom network.

But the decisive proof is still missing: a useful customer problem solved better than the best practical classical method after the full time, cost and supporting work are included.

My estimate therefore remains 2030-2033 for broad commercial readiness. All six maturity ratings in the Quantum Commercial Readiness Index (QCRI) also remain unchanged.

Quantum Litmus’s daily monitoring covers a fixed register of 375 named sources and source roots worldwide: 75 commercial actors, 271 research institutions, and 29 specialist, news and filing sources. I also search beyond that list and independently cross-check important claims. The fixed list must not become a blind spot.

The questionMy Q3 reading
Are real applications working?There is a live telecom example, but the separate contribution of the quantum processor is not established.
Is the full system getting better?Yes, in parts. Hardware, error handling, installations and research infrastructure improved. The pieces have not yet come together in a broadly useful machine.
Has the commercial outlook changed?No. There is still no repeatable economic advantage on a useful problem.

The six-pillar scorecard

PillarRatingWhat that means in plain language
Hardware ReadinessEarlyIndividual components improved, but no complete reliable and economical system was demonstrated.
Software & AlgorithmsDevelopingMethods improved, but there is still no repeatable, broadly useful workload.
Validated AdvantageNot yet proven broadlyNo accepted end-to-end win over the best practical classical method.
Commercial AdoptionEarly / LimitedResearch purchases and installations increased. Proven customer value remains narrow.
Economic ViabilityUnprovenNo complete cost and return case for a useful quantum system.
Ecosystem ReadinessDevelopingMore suppliers, labs and access points exist. Repeated operating results are still needed.

These are my quarter-end judgments, based on the evidence available through 30 September.

03The prize

Quantum computing is difficult to explain because the promise is often mixed together with the machinery.

The promise is easier to understand. Some problems in chemistry, materials and physics become extremely difficult for conventional computers as their size grows. Researchers simplify them, calculate what they can, build the most promising candidates, and test them in the lab. That works, but it can be slow and expensive.

A sufficiently capable quantum computer may eventually model some of these problems with fewer shortcuts. That could help a research team decide which drug, battery material or catalyst is worth making first. The DOE quantum-applications roadmap describes this long-term goal.

A 2024 drug-discovery study, for example, used a small quantum calculation to examine part of a chemical reaction. It did not produce a treatment. It showed the kind of decision researchers eventually hope quantum computing can improve.

Other applications have different tests. Optimization has to beat classical solvers that already work well. A future fault-tolerant quantum computer may threaten current encryption, which is why security preparation is sensible now. Today's machines cannot yet carry out that attack.

Quantum Litmus exists to ask the question that gets lost in the announcements: what has actually changed? A quarterly report raises the bar. A qubit record, an installed machine and a scientific experiment may all matter. But what matters commercially is whether the whole system can deliver dependable and valuable work.

- Joerg Germann, Editor

04From experiment to useful machine

A quantum processor is only one part of a quantum computer.

For a useful result, the full chain has to work:

StepThe simple question
Choose the problemIs this a problem where quantum computing could genuinely help?
Prepare the calculationCan the real-world problem be represented correctly on the machine?
Run the machineCan the qubits perform enough accurate operations before errors take over?
Correct and measureCan errors be detected and the answer measured reliably?
Check the answerIs the result accurate and useful?
Compare the alternativesIs it better than the best practical classical method after all costs are included?

A failure at any step can wipe out the gain. A flawless calculation of the wrong model is still wrong. A fast quantum step may not help if loading the data or checking the answer takes too long.

This is why Quantum Litmus does not treat a higher qubit count as proof of readiness. Cooling, control electronics, software, error correction, measurement and economics all have to work together. The DOE basic research-needs report makes the same point.

05The hardware approaches: our September Spotlight

There is no agreed blueprint for building a useful quantum computer. The main approaches solve the problem in different ways and have different weaknesses.

5.1 The different approaches

ApproachThe basic ideaThe main scaling problem
Superconducting circuitsTiny electrical circuits operated at extremely low temperaturesConnect and control many qubits without losing accuracy.
Trapped ionsCharged atoms held in place and controlled with lasersKeep very accurate operations while increasing speed and scale.
Neutral atomsAtoms held and rearranged with lasersTurn large arrays into reliable, error-corrected computation.
Silicon spinsQuantum states controlled in semiconductor devicesManufacture and connect dense devices consistently.
PhotonicsInformation carried by particles of lightControl loss and integrate sources, circuits and detectors.

Quantum annealers, including D-Wave's systems, are designed for particular optimization problems. Their results should be judged against the best classical methods for those problems. They are not direct proof that a general-purpose quantum computer is ready.

5.2 What the Spotlight found

The September Spotlight did not find one overall winner.

  • Superconducting systems had the deepest supplier and equipment base.
  • Trapped ions led on several published accuracy measures.
  • Neutral atoms led on array size and flexibility.
  • Silicon spins had a credible semiconductor-manufacturing route.
  • Photonics had a natural route to optical networking.

These are different kinds of leads. Adding them together into one ranking would be misleading. A company can lead on gate accuracy while another leads on manufacturing or system size.

The quarter also included financing, supplier developments, installations and control improvements, including Pasqal's Nasdaq listing. All may help the industry develop. None showed a reliable and economically useful quantum computer.

The complete technical Spotlight is included in Appendix A below for readers who want the detailed architecture comparison.

06A harder test, and how much to trust it

One of the quarter's more interesting results came from IBM and the University of Chicago. To understand why it matters, we first need to understand the problem they were trying to solve.

Today's quantum computers are noisy. They make mistakes, and for a difficult calculation we may not know the correct answer in advance. That creates an obvious problem: how do we know whether the machine produced a real quantum result or mostly noise?

The researchers designed a stress test. They were not trying to discover a drug or solve a business problem. They ran a specially designed quantum circuit many times and recorded the measurement from each run. The important result was not any one measurement. It was the distribution across all of them: did the data still contain the signal created by the quantum circuit, and how difficult would that distribution be for a conventional computer to reproduce?

The team then added a form of quality control. The machine could detect some faulty runs and throw them away. Think of a factory rejecting products that fail inspection. The products that remain should be better, but the factory has produced much more waste.

That is what happened here. The accepted results were cleaner, but most runs were discarded. The September experiment ran a 64-qubit circuit encoded in 76 physical qubits, including 12 extra qubits for error detection. It produced 1,389 accepted samples in 14.5 minutes. This is a 64-qubit calculation, not a 76-qubit calculation.

The team could measure the quality of an easier version of the test, but could not check the harder version in the same direct way. So they compared the error warnings from both runs and estimated the effect of errors those warnings might miss. From this they calculated that the harder run scored at least 0.349 on a scale where 1 would be a perfect match with the intended quantum state. The actual score could be higher. Their 95% confidence in that minimum depends on their measurements and their assumptions about how errors behave.

This score describes the combined condition of the qubits before they were measured. It does not mean that 34.9% of the individual answers were correct. The 2 September paper gives the technical method; the important point here is that the harder test retained a measurable quantum signal, even though its exact quality was not checked directly.

Why this matters

The September paper combines three things that are useful to see together: a harder test, a method for rejecting some bad runs, and an estimate of how much signal remained. That gives researchers a better way to judge whether a noisy quantum experiment did something meaningful.

Why it is not proof of quantum advantage

The test was created to challenge computers. It did not solve a useful customer problem. Rejecting most runs also came at a large cost in efficiency.

The September researchers say a conventional computer would take too long to repeat their test. That claim still needs an independent check. This is a statement about what the papers show and do not show. It is not a finding that the result was wrong or that the claim was overstated.

Here is why I am cautious. In an easier test in July, the quantum machine produced 2,051 accepted results in 16.1 minutes. Researchers at the Singapore University of Technology and Design and NVIDIA then used 256 graphics processors to check those already published results. Their 13 August paper reports that this took 37.3 minutes. They worked out how likely the machine was to produce each result. They did not produce a fresh set of results in the same way, so the two times are not a direct speed comparison.

And this was a check of July, not September. It neither proves nor disproves the claim about the harder September test. We still need an independent comparison for that test.

My reading: this is a serious and useful machine test. It improves our ability to judge noisy quantum experiments. It does not yet show that a quantum computer can solve a valuable problem better or more cheaply than a classical computer. Evidence confidence: moderate. Commercial impact confidence: low.

07The computers required to correct a quantum computer

A future quantum computer will still need conventional computers.

Think of error correction as a fast conversation. The quantum machine continuously produces warning signals. A conventional processor has to interpret them and tell the system how to respond. If that processor falls behind, the quantum calculation cannot remain reliable.

An IonQ study, covered on 27 August, tested whether an ordinary processor could keep up with a model of a large future trapped-ion machine. Under the study's assumptions, a decoder using 12 CPU cores of an Apple M4 Max came close to the required pace.

This is encouraging, but it was a model. The large quantum processor and live error stream did not exist in the test.

The next step is clear: run the decoder beside real hardware and show that it keeps up at the required scale. Evidence confidence: moderate. Commercial impact confidence: low.

08Hardware is arriving; useful work must follow

Research institutions are buying and installing quantum computers. This matters because procurement, delivery, operation and user access are real parts of building an industry.

Quantum Litmus covered IQM's orders and deployments in August. On 18 September, EPB launched an IonQ Forte Enterprise system in Chattanooga. The 19 September Reality Check examined the launch.

The launch was a real delivery milestone. EPB named its Quantum Computing Fellows as the first research users. The Chattanooga Times Free Press reported that researchers ran their first algorithms at the 18 September commissioning. EPB planned commercial access for early October. Neither account supplied a measured workload advantage. Delivery, first research runs and commercial access are separate milestones.

The next report should answer four basic questions: What ran? What was learned? Was it better than the best classical method? What did the whole operation cost?

A supplier can build a real business selling research infrastructure before anyone proves downstream quantum advantage. Those are two different milestones.

09The application test

The closer a claim gets to a real customer decision, the more important the full workflow becomes.

Mitsubishi Electric and QunaSys studied the cost of preparing engineering data for a quantum calculation, as covered on 25 August. Their point is important: a fast calculation may have little value if preparing the input consumes the gain. The work identifies the problem. It does not show that the problem has been solved.

The DOCOMO case

NTT DOCOMO has described a second D-Wave hybrid optimization service in live network planning. DOCOMO reported a 65.3% reduction in peak location-registration signaling and a 7.0% reduction in paging signals. DOCOMO disclosed those results in February. D-Wave described the work again in August, and Quantum Litmus covered that announcement. The February date matters: this is not a new Q3 deployment and should not be counted twice. The published accounts do not separate the contribution of the quantum processor from the classical methods around it, and they do not include a full comparison with the best classical optimizer.

My reading: useful operational evidence as reported, but not proof of quantum advantage. Evidence confidence: moderate. Impact on broad commercial readiness: low.

10Money, outside scrutiny and contrary evidence

Quantum computing needs large and patient investment. Funding is evidence that governments and companies are willing to build capability. It is not evidence that the technology already works.

Canada committed C$195 million to Xanadu through the Strategic Response Fund, as covered on 29 August. This is the federal part of up to C$390 million in potential support for the C$893 million Project OPTIMISM. The remaining potential support should not be counted as awarded funding.

DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative is also important. It is asking whether any approach can reach a point where the computational value exceeds the cost of the machine. Stage B selections mean that teams move into deeper assessment. They do not mean that a utility-scale machine already exists.

Nikkei reported on 5 September that NEC had stopped developing a physical quantum computer. Mainichi/Kyodo reported on 10 September that related research would continue. Quantum Litmus covered the Nikkei report on 7 September. This review did not identify an NEC release confirming a withdrawal. The reports are evidence about one company’s reported programme. They are not evidence that an architecture has failed.

11Quarterly judgment and what would change it

Q3 improved several parts of the system:

  • A harder experiment was run and assessed.
  • Error-correction support systems were studied.
  • More hardware reached institutions.
  • Manufacturing and research infrastructure expanded.
  • A live hybrid telecom application remained in operation.

But the pieces still do not add up to a reliable result that beats the best practical classical method on a useful problem at an acceptable total cost.

Late September added an Infleqtion logical-qubit announcement, Quobly pilot-line access, and the opening of a shared quantum laboratory. These strengthen the technical and industrial base. They do not change the conclusion.

I therefore keep 2030-2033 and all six QCRI ratings unchanged.

Outlook for the next report

The next quarterly report will give Europe more explicit coverage. Quantum Litmus already checks European companies, research institutions and public programs every day. The next report will bring more of that evidence into the main analysis, including national initiatives, industrial activity, funding, procurement and real deployments. The same test will apply: more activity matters, but it only changes the readiness outlook when it produces stronger technical or commercial evidence.

What would change my view

  • A useful workload that wins against the best practical classical method from start to finish.
  • Independent confirmation of that result.
  • Error-corrected operation that can be sustained at realistic scale.
  • Repeated evidence that quantum results improve real user decisions.
  • A credible case that the complete system can be built and operated economically.

One strong paper deserves attention. Several independent results pointing in the same direction would justify changing the outlook.

If a Q3 result belongs on this ledger and is not here, send the primary source through the Correction form. I will add it in a dated update if it meets the same test as the items above: a useful workload, an independent check, or evidence that bears on the six ratings. Announcements, partnerships and funding do not qualify on their own.

Appendix A · Different leads, no overall winner

The September architecture comparison, including its underlying references.

QUANTUM LITMUS / SPOTLIGHT #1 / 1 SEPTEMBER 2026

Appendix A-1

Appendix A · Different leads, no overall winner

Different leads, no overall winner

Spotlight #1 · Sept 1st, 2026 · Company knowledge graph snapshot 31 August 2026

Commercial readiness: Early · estimated window 2030–2033

Spotlights are occasional themed readings of the Company knowledge graph. They are not the daily Reality

Check. This one compares the main ways companies on that graph are trying to build a quantum computer,

and explains what happens when a program runs on each kind of machine.

There is not one winner. Different approaches are ahead at different jobs. Commercial readiness remains

early. Broad, dependable use in ordinary organizations is still more plausible in the 2030–2033 window than

it is this year. Nothing in this article changes that estimate.

What a quantum computer is trying to do

Ordinary computers are already extremely good at the work most organizations need. They move money,

route packets, train models, and simulate large parts of the physical world by reducing those jobs to

arithmetic on bits. A bit is a stable distinction between two states. The entire digital economy is an

engineered agreement that those distinctions can be copied, stored, and operated on without the hardware

noticing the difference between a payroll file and a weather field.

A quantum computer is an attempt to compute with a different kind of distinction. Its basic unit, the qubit,

can be prepared so that 0 and 1 are not yet settled. Until the device is measured, the state of each qubit —

and, more importantly, of the collection of qubits — is described by amplitudes: quantities that can

reinforce or cancel when the machine is steered through a sequence of operations. Measurement ends that

stage of the calculation. What comes out is ordinary bits. The quantum part of the work, if it happened at

all, happened in the interference of those amplitudes. A transistor is easier to picture. A control voltage

either crosses a threshold or it does not. Current is on or off. That clean switch is the bit. A qubit is not that

kind of device. While the program runs it is not sitting at 0 or 1. The operations only tilt the odds. When you

look, you still get only 0 or 1. The simple case is a yes-or-no question. You run the same program a

thousand times. If you get 700 ones and 300 zeros, the answer is yes. If you get 510 ones and 490 zeros,

you do not have an answer. You have a coin flip. One run never decides it. Most jobs are not a vote. In a

chemistry estimate each run produces a whole string of bits, such as 0101101. That length is not the

number of operations. It is the number of qubits you measured: seven qubits, seven bits. The operations

only steered those qubits before the look. That string is one snapshot of how the electrons were arranged,

not a yes or a no. An ordinary computer already knows what energy that particular arrangement would

have. After a thousand runs it has a thousand snapshots and a thousand little energy scores. It averages

those scores. That average is the energy number. Counting how many 1s appeared anywhere in the pile

would answer the wrong question. That number is what a chemist can put next to a flask: which of two

candidate catalysts has the lower barrier, and therefore which compound is worth months at the bench. An

ordinary computer can guess at that barrier only by throwing away some of the electron arrangements that

matter. The quantum machine is being asked to keep those arrangements in the calculation long enough

that the averaged number matches the reaction — or shows, cheaply, that the reaction is not worth

running.

QUANTUM LITMUS / SPOTLIGHT #1 / 1 SEPTEMBER 2026

Appendix A-2

That is a narrower idea than the usual slogan that a quantum computer “tries every answer at once.” If you

load many candidate answers into a set of qubits and measure immediately, you sample from a spread of

outcomes. You do not receive a ranked list. The methods that matter are the ones that shape the

amplitudes so that the outcomes you want become likely and the ones you do not become rare. In that

sense the machine is closer to an instrument you tune than to a warehouse you search.

The reason anyone bothers is not mystery. It is cost. Some objects that scientists and engineers need to

describe — molecules, magnets, certain optimization landscapes, certain cryptographic functions — have

an internal structure whose complete ordinary description grows violently with size. An ordinary computer

can still approximate them, often very well, by throwing away structure and using huge amounts of time

and memory. A quantum device is built from the same sort of physical degrees of freedom as the system

under study, or can be programmed to imitate the arithmetic that system requires. The bet is that some of

those problems will fit the device more naturally than they fit a data centre full of bits.

Three jobs that make the bet concrete

The oldest of these jobs is physical simulation. Richard Feynman put the point plainly in the early 1980s:

nature is not classical, and a classical computer is an awkward tool for keeping track of it. Electrons in a

molecule do not occupy neat boxes. They occupy a shared state whose relevant arrangements multiply as

atoms are added. Chemists already have a mature toolbox of approximations for this. Those

approximations fail, or become expensive, in the cases people actually care about — a catalyst whose

activity depends on several correlated electrons, a battery material whose useful state is not the simplest

one, a magnetic material whose phases are hard to tell apart. A quantum processor will not “discover

drugs.” The more honest target is a number that is now slow or untrustworthy: an energy difference, a

reaction barrier, a correlation function. If that number can be produced more cleanly than it can be

produced today, a laboratory can spend fewer cycles on dead ends.

A second job is structure in large combination spaces. Assigning crews and aircraft, placing facilities,

cutting waste on a production line, and balancing a power grid are all problems of choosing among

arrangements. Ordinary algorithms already solve many of these at industrial scale by exploiting structure

and accepting good-enough answers. Quantum methods do not repeal that fact. What they offer, in theory,

is a different way to concentrate amplitude on better arrangements, or to sample from a distribution that is

hard to build classically. In practice this is the part of the field most often confused with a product. A

machine can be used inside a planning workflow and still be doing work that a conventional solver could

have done. The interesting evidence is not that an optimization ran. It is that the same class of job was

worth repeating, under operational constraints, after the novelty wore off.

A third job sits further out and is easier to state than to perform. A large share of public-key cryptography

assumes that certain reversible-looking operations — factoring large integers, extracting discrete

logarithms — remain slow on ordinary hardware. Shor’s algorithm showed that a sufficiently large,

sufficiently accurate quantum computer would not find them slow. That result is why banks, governments,

and standards bodies are already moving toward algorithms that do not rely on those assumptions. It is

also why cryptography is a poor illustration of current hardware. An attack of that kind is a long, precise

calculation. It requires error-corrected operations at a scale no company on the Company knowledge graph

has shown. When a laboratory revises the estimated size of such a machine, it is revising a planning figure.

It is not reporting that the attack exists.

Other proposed uses follow the same pattern. Some sampling tasks, some linear-algebra subroutines inside

larger programs, and some methods for producing randomness that can be checked as unpredictable are

all attempts to make amplitude do work that bit arithmetic does expensively. Each of them fails in the

same place if the device cannot hold and steer its state long enough.

QUANTUM LITMUS / SPOTLIGHT #1 / 1 SEPTEMBER 2026

Appendix A-3

What a run actually is

Almost every program written for the machines in this Spotlight still has the same outer shape.

An ordinary computer first translates the user’s question into operations this particular device can perform.

That translation is not clerical. Devices have limited connectivity, limited duration, and a native set of

operations that do not match the textbook. A short description on paper can become a long job once

information has to be moved across a chip, an ion chain, or an atom array. Every extra movement is

another chance to lose the calculation.

The device is then prepared in a known state, usually a field of zeros. The translated sequence is applied.

The device is measured. The measurement yields a string of bits. The string is almost never treated as the

answer. The loop is repeated until the ordinary computer has a distribution it can interpret. In the chemistry

and optimization examples above, the quantum processor is often only the inner kernel. The outer program

— choosing the next experiment, updating a model, deciding whether the result is good enough — remains

classical.

Two exceptions appear later because they change that picture rather than decorate it. Some

superconducting systems, D-Wave’s among them, do not take a list of operations. They encode a problem

as an energy landscape and change that landscape until the hardware settles. Some photonic systems do

not hold a long-lived register of matter qubits at all. They turn the program into a pattern of measurements

on light. Those are different ways of making amplitudes do work. They are not different marketing names

for the same box.

Why the hardware argument starts here

Amplitudes are not software. They live in a physical object, and every object has a preferred way of failing.

Heat, charge noise, stray magnetic fields, imperfect control pulses, lost atoms, and lost photons are not

metaphors. They are the reasons a calculation that exists on a whiteboard dies in a laboratory.

Error correction is the proposed industrial answer: store one reliable unit of information across many

unreliable physical qubits, keep measuring the symptoms of error, and repair as you go. That answer is

real, and it is expensive. The extra qubits are not a larger product. They are the cost of making the product

hold together. A processor can therefore look large in a company announcement and still be unable to

finish a program whose structure matches the three jobs above.

This is the point of comparing technologies instead of ranking press releases. Companies are choosing

different objects to carry the same kind of information because those objects demand different factories,

fail in different ways, and force programs to be carried out differently. Superconducting circuits, trapped

ions, atoms in laser traps, spins in silicon, and photons are not five brands. They are five answers to a

single engineering question: where can amplitudes be prepared, steered, and read with enough control

that the cancelling-and-adding process outruns the damage.

Superconducting systems

In these machines the qubit is a tiny electrical circuit on a chip. The chip is cooled far below any

temperature used in ordinary industry. On the Company knowledge graph this group includes IBM, Google,

Rigetti, IQM, Oxford Quantum Circuits, QpiAI, SEEQC, QuantWare, Alice & Bob, Amazon’s quantum

research, Fujitsu, and D-Wave. D-Wave belongs here because it also uses superconducting circuits, even

though customers program it differently.

QUANTUM LITMUS / SPOTLIGHT #1 / 1 SEPTEMBER 2026

Appendix A-4

How a step-by-step program runs

You begin with a sequence of operations, or a software tool writes that sequence for you. Another program

then rewrites it so that it fits this chip. On these chips a qubit can usually interact only with its neighbours.

If two qubits that need to work together sit far apart, the software inserts extra steps to move information

across the device. Those extra steps make the job longer and create more chances for error.

Each operation is a short pulse of microwave energy sent down a wire. One kind of pulse changes a single

qubit. Another kind briefly links two neighbouring qubits. To read an answer, the machine checks a nearby

sensor. The sensor’s behaviour tells the ordinary computer whether that qubit came out as 0 or 1. The

whole sequence is then run again. The collection of results, not a single pass, is what the outer program

interprets.

If the company is trying to make the result reliable, the sequence you wrote is not the sequence that

actually runs. Each useful unit of information is spread across many physical circuits. A large share of the

machine’s time is spent checking for damage rather than doing the original calculation.

How a cat-style superconducting machine differs

Alice & Bob, and Amazon’s related research, still use a cold superconducting box and still send microwave

signals. They store the information in a different microwave state, chosen so that one common type of

error is already unlikely. The user still thinks in terms of a sequence of operations. The hope is that fewer

physical circuits will be needed to protect each useful unit of information.

How a D-Wave-style program differs

D-Wave machines do not take a list of quantum operations in the same way. You describe a problem as a

landscape of better and worse answers. The chip is wired to represent that landscape. The machine

changes the landscape slowly and the circuits settle into a pattern. You read that pattern. An ordinary

computer may adjust the problem and try again.

This is a different kind of program. It can be a reasonable fit for some planning and optimization tasks. It is

not a substitute for a general algorithm from a textbook. We keep D-Wave in the superconducting group

because the hardware is still a superconducting circuit. We do not treat it as a separate contest.

Why this group is ahead in industry and supporting equipment

This is where the largest technology companies have serious programs. It is also where specialists already

sell pieces of the stack: chips and packaging, cooling systems, and control electronics. On the Company

knowledge graph that supporting layer is thicker here than in any other group. That does not mean the

machines are ready for everyday work. It means this approach looks most like an industry.

Recent evidence moved money, delivery plans, a new control-electronics company, and a repeated

optimization job at a telecom operator. None of that showed that general useful computation is available,

or that the 2030–2033 estimate should change.

QUANTUM LITMUS / SPOTLIGHT #1 / 1 SEPTEMBER 2026

Appendix A-5

Trapped-ion systems

In these machines the qubit is a single charged atom held in place by electric fields inside a vacuum

chamber. Companies in this group on the Company knowledge graph include IonQ, Quantinuum, and Alpine

Quantum Technologies. Honeywell appears as related exposure through Quantinuum.

As of the 31 August 2026 snapshot, the populated market-value field for IonQ is the largest among quantum-first companies on the Company knowledge graph. Quantinuum’s market value is not populated on that snapshot, so this is a comparison of filled fields, not a ranking of company value.

How a program runs

You still begin with a sequence of operations. Light, or a microwave signal, changes one atom. To connect

two atoms, the machine makes them share a vibration and then removes that vibration, leaving the two

atoms linked. In a single row of atoms, many pairs can be connected directly. The software therefore often

inserts fewer extra movement steps than it does on a superconducting chip.

On larger machines the atoms themselves are moved from one zone to another. Moving an atom is part of

running the program, not a side task.

The answer is read with light. One state of the atom glows under a probe. The other state stays dark. A

detector turns that glow or darkness into an ordinary 0 or 1. As with the other gate machines, the loop is

repeated and an ordinary computer interprets the collection of strings.

Why this group leads on fidelity and several logical-error records

These systems have a long public record of precise operations and flexible connections between qubits.

Quantinuum’s Helios processor is a 98-qubit trapped-ion machine with published component fidelities at

the front of the public table, and associated work reports encoded computations across tens of logical

qubits, including encodings near two physical qubits per logical qubit. That is a protection-quality record,

not only a hardware-quality record. It is why this Spotlight does not give neutral atoms an unqualified lead

on “protected qubits.”

A recent item in our daily series showed only that, in a model, an ordinary processor could keep up with the

extra checking work that error correction would require on one ion design. That is a point about control and

software. It is not evidence that ion machines can be manufactured at very large scale, or that they are

ready as a product.

The main open problem remains packing. It is still much harder to place millions of ions than it is to print

millions of circuit elements on a chip.

Neutral-atom systems

In these machines the qubit is an uncharged atom held in a spot of laser light. The spots can be moved.

Companies in this group on the Company knowledge graph include Pasqal, Infleqtion, QuEra, and Atom

Computing. Hitachi appears at the edge of the group through software and mixed research.

QUANTUM LITMUS / SPOTLIGHT #1 / 1 SEPTEMBER 2026

Appendix A-6

How a step-by-step program runs

Atoms are loaded into a grid of light spots. Some spots miss. The machine slides spare atoms into the

empty seats. A focused beam changes one atom. To connect two atoms, the machine briefly puts one atom

into a very large, fragile orbit. While that is happening, a nearby atom cannot enter the same orbit. That

rule links the two atoms.

Between stages of the program, the machine can move atoms so that the next pair that need to work

together are sitting next to each other. The arrangement of the atoms is part of how the program is carried

out.

At the end the machine photographs the whole grid. Whether an atom is bright, dark, or missing becomes

the result. Missing atoms matter. In this kind of machine a qubit can disappear, not only change from 0 to

1.

How a program can run without a list of steps

Some jobs do not use a written sequence of operations. The operator sets the pattern of lights and field

strengths, waits, and then photographs the atoms. The group of atoms changes together as one system.

That method is used for some simulation work and some planning work. It is not the same as sending a

standard quantum program to the machine.

Why this group leads on array scale and rearrangeability

In the past year this approach has produced some of the largest public logical-qubit experiments, including

work associated with QuEra, Harvard, and MIT that reports deep logical circuits with on the order of 96

logical qubits. Being able to rearrange atoms is part of that story, because the layout required by an

error-correcting code can be built by moving atoms rather than only by adding extra operations. That is a

lead in scale and reconfigurability. It is not an unambiguous lead in protection quality. Trapped-ion

hardware, especially Helios, holds several of the strongest published fidelity and repeated-encoding results.

Recent evidence moved funding, including Pasqal’s public listing, and improved day-to-day control,

including faster correction of a laser that had drifted. A national research machine in Japan also came

online. None of that showed that customers are getting repeatable useful results, that the economics work,

or that the readiness window has moved.

Silicon spin systems

In these machines the qubit is the magnetism of an electron, or of a carefully placed atom, inside silicon.

Companies in this group on the Company knowledge graph include Diraq, Quantum Motion, Equal1, Silicon

Quantum Computing, and Photonic Inc. Hitachi also has related work in this area.

How a program runs

You begin with a sequence of operations. A voltage change or a microwave signal turns one spin. To

connect two neighbouring qubits, the machine lowers the electrical barrier between them for a short,

measured time so they influence each other, then raises the barrier again. A qubit usually talks only to its

neighbours. If information needs to travel farther, the software adds extra steps.

The answer is not read by looking at the spin directly. Only one spin state is allowed to jump onto a sensor.

The sensor notices a tiny change in charge, and the ordinary computer infers whether the qubit was 0 or 1.

QUANTUM LITMUS / SPOTLIGHT #1 / 1 SEPTEMBER 2026

Appendix A-7

Several qubits can share one sensor and take turns. Silicon Quantum Computing has shown a version of

that sharing with four qubits.

Photonic Inc. is trying to add another step: copy the information from a spin onto light, send the light

through fibre, and catch it in another module. That would turn one program into a program spread across

more than one box. That idea is still research.

Why this group has the clearest semiconductor-compatibility thesis

The case for silicon is not that it already has the most qubits. It does not. The case is a manufacturing

thesis: spin qubits can be built in processes that sit close to the lines used for ordinary chips, including 300

mm foundry flows. That thesis is real, and it is incomplete. Published work is clear that ordinary transistor

processes still have to be customized. Superconducting qubits have also been fabricated with industrial

300 mm methods. Compatibility is not a monopoly.

Diraq’s plan to place an eight-qubit machine in an Equinix data centre in Sydney is an announced operations experiment. Public material reviewed for this report does not include measured uptime in that setting, a customer workload result, a comparison showing advantage over ordinary computers, or published operating economics. Absence of those figures in the material reviewed is not a finding that the installation failed.

Photonic systems

In these machines the qubit is a property of light, such as which path a particle of light took. Companies in

this group on the Company knowledge graph include PsiQuantum, Xanadu, Quantum Computing Inc.,

ORCA, and Quandela.

How a program can run

There are several versions, and they are easy to confuse.

In the most familiar version, a sequence of operations is turned into settings on an optical arrangement:

splitters, delays, and path changes. Light travels through that arrangement. Detectors click. The clicks

become 0s and 1s. Connecting two qubits while the light is in flight is difficult, which is why many groups do

not rely on that method for large machines.

In the version that large photonic projects often describe, the written program is translated into a

measurement recipe. The machine tries to build a large web of linked light from many small pieces. Some

links fail. The design is supposed to work around missing light. The program is carried out by choosing what

to measure and in what order. The information does not sit in a tray of long-lived matter qubits. It sits in the

light that has not been measured yet.

In another version, used by some Xanadu-style work, the program is a set of optical settings rather than a

list of bit operations. Light goes through a mesh. Detectors count. An ordinary computer finishes the

calculation. Some problems can be posed that way without ever looking like a standard qubit program.

QUANTUM LITMUS / SPOTLIGHT #1 / 1 SEPTEMBER 2026

Appendix A-8

Why this group leads on optical networking, not on “room temperature”

Light already travels through fibre. That networking point is strong. The phrase “ordinary temperatures” is

not. PsiQuantum’s published design still cools single-photon detectors to about 2–4 K. That is much warmer

than the millikelvin refrigerators used for superconducting chips, and it can use industrial helium plants

rather than a chandelier-style dilution fridge. It is still cryogenics. Parts of a photonic system can sit at room

temperature. The detectors, for now, cannot.

The gap is the middle of the journey. Compared with superconducting and trapped-ion machines, it is

harder for a customer to point to a public, intermediate photonic computer and run the same kind of test.

Canada’s manufacturing support for Xanadu moved the factory plan. It did not show working production

yield, useful computation, or customer economics.

The main physical cost in this group is loss. A missing particle of light is not simply a wrong answer that you

correct later in the same way as a flipped bit. It is a piece of the calculation that never arrived.

Why the supporting companies matter

A quantum computer is not only the qubits. It also needs cooling, control electronics, software that

suppresses errors, equipment that corrects errors in real time, and factories that package chips.

On the Company knowledge graph that supporting layer is densest around superconducting systems. That

is one reason superconducting systems look like an industry.

Some of the most important supporting companies, including firms that sell control systems and

error-correction software, say their tools can work with more than one kind of qubit. As long as those

suppliers refuse to bet on only one approach, the market is not forcing a single winner. That is a second

reason this article describes different leads rather than one crown.

Microsoft’s topological effort is on the graph. On the public evidence used here, it is a research roadmap inside a large company, and it is not ahead on the jobs compared above.

Software companies that write programs without choosing a qubit type also do not decide this contest. A

compiler does not choose the hardware.

Scorecard

Question Lead cited in public evidence What that does not prove

Who has the most complete industry around the machine?

Superconducting That these machines can do useful general work for customers

Who has the strongest public fidelity and several logical-error records?

Trapped ion That ions can be manufactured at very large scale

Who leads on array scale and rearrangeability in public logical-qubit experiments?

Neutral atom An unambiguous lead on protection quality, or that customers are buying the result

Who has the clearest semiconductor-compatibility thesis?

Silicon spin That ordinary transistor lines can be reused unchanged, or that a planned colo install is a data-centre lead

QUANTUM LITMUS / SPOTLIGHT #1 / 1 SEPTEMBER 2026

Appendix A-9

Question Lead cited in public evidence What that does not prove

Who best matches optical networking and warmer-than-millikelvin cryogenics?

Photonic Room-temperature operation end to end, or a public middle-size machine customers can test in the usual way

Who has supporting suppliers you can already name?

Superconducting That parts and cooling equal readiness

What changed recently, and what did not

Pasqal’s public listing added money to the neutral-atom group. It did not show better processor

performance.

Diraq’s plan with Equinix strengthened the silicon argument about data centres. The material reviewed does not show measured uptime in that setting.

QuEra showed faster correction of a drifting laser. That is an operations improvement, not a completed

product.

IonQ showed, in a model, that ordinary computing hardware might keep up with error-checking work on an

ion design. That is not the same as a finished, error-corrected service.

Xanadu received a manufacturing commitment from Canada. That is a factory plan, not proof of yield or

customer results.

A new company, S-Transistors, added to the superconducting control-electronics layer. D-Wave showed a

repeated optimization job inside a working telecom network. Both belong to the superconducting story.

Neither changes the overall readiness estimate.

What did not change is the part that matters for readers of the Company knowledge graph. We still do not

have useful computation as something an organization can order across these groups. We still do not have

durable customer economics. We still estimate broad commercial readiness in the 2030–2033 window.

Closing

These companies are not all building the same machine. Superconducting work looks most like an industry

with suppliers. Trapped-ion work has the strongest public record for high-fidelity gates and several leading

logical-error demonstrations. Neutral-atom work leads on array scale, rearrangeability, and some of the

largest public logical-qubit experiments. Silicon work offers the clearest compatibility thesis with

semiconductor manufacturing. Photonic work offers the clearest connection to optical networking and

cryogenics that are demanding, but less demanding than millikelvin refrigerators.

That is specialization. It is not arrival. Until one approach can do useful work, keep customers, and survive

the ordinary demands of a real facility, there is no overall leader. There are only different leads on different

jobs. None of those leads is commercial readiness.

Assessment

Evidence confidence: Moderate. Impact confidence: Low. Commercial-readiness effect: None. QCRI

movement: None. This is an architecture-specific evidence ledger, not a change to the 2030–2033 window.

Primary sources

QUANTUM LITMUS / SPOTLIGHT #1 / 1 SEPTEMBER 2026

Appendix A-10

Trapped ion — Ransford et al., “A 98-qubit trapped-ion quantum computer with all-to-all connectivity,”

Nature (2026), doi:10.1038/s41586-026-10676-4; preprint arXiv: 2511.05465. Quantinuum, “From Memory

to Logic,” on Helios encodings including 48 logical qubits at about 2:1 and larger encoded demonstrations.

Neutral atom — Zhou et al., “Low-overhead transversal fault tolerance for universal quantum

computation,” Nature 646, 303–308 (2025), doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09543-5. “A fault-tolerant

neutral-atom architecture for universal quantum computation,” Nature 649, 39–46 (2025),

doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09848-5. Ismail et al., “Transversal architecture for megaquop-scale quantum

simulation with neutral atoms,” PRX Quantum; arXiv: 2509.18294.

Photonic cryogenics — PsiQuantum, “Introducing Omega,” on 2–4 K detector modules and industrial

cryoplants. Alexander et al., “A manufacturable platform for photonic quantum computing,”

arXiv: 2404.17570 (SNSPDs operated near 2 K).

Manufacturing — Van Damme et al., “Advanced CMOS manufacturing of superconducting qubits on 300

mm wafers,” Nature (2024), doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07941-9. Steinacker et al., “A 300 mm foundry silicon

spin qubit unit cell exceeding 99% fidelity,” arXiv: 2410.15590. Imec notes on Si-spin and superconducting

300 mm flows that still require process customization.

Company knowledge graph snapshot, 31 August 2026. Reality Checks on Diraq/Equinix, S-Transistors,

Pasqal, Xanadu, QuEra, IonQ, and D-Wave/NTT DOCOMO (late August 2026).

See the holdings disclosure beneath the report byline. Independent editorial

analysis; not investment, procurement, or engineering advice.

Quantum Litmus · Spotlight #1 · Sept 1st, 2026

A themed reading of the Company knowledge graph, not the daily tape.